Analysis of International Ocean Freight Trends in November

November marks the end of the traditional peak season for container shipping. Freight rates are no longer driven by peak-season demand, but shaped by the balance between supply and demand. The market is characterised by divergent indices, varying performances across trade lanes, and a mismatch between carrier announced rate hikes and spot transaction prices, making market assessment more complex. Combining shipping supply and demand, lane performance and external disruptions, this article analyses the operating pattern, underlying logic and outlook of ocean freight in November, to support logistics planning for foreign trade enterprises.

Market Pattern Overview

The November container shipping market shall be assessed against the full-year cycle. Freight rates have stayed at an elevated level throughout the year, with a sharp rally during the peak season and upward momentum sustained in October. The November decline represents a technical correction within the high-price range rather than a return to low rates. While spot rates soften month-on-month, the absolute price level remains high, which defines the core feature of the current market.

Divergence among freight indices arises from the different response cycles of spot cargoes and long-term contracts. Spot rates react more sensitively to market shifts and fall first, while indices incorporating long-term contracts lag behind, resulting in temporary mixed signals. As transactions progress, spot and settlement rates gradually converge. Based on available space and cargo volume, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of November. Trade lanes show clear differentiation, and no single index should be used for quotation. Spot rates for Europe and South America drop notably amid weak end consumption in Europe and insufficient cargo support. Supply-demand fundamentals in the Mediterranean and Africa hold firmer, outperforming North Europe. Trans-Pacific lanes trend downward, with eastbound US rates correcting for consecutive weeks. Rates for the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia remain stable with narrow fluctuations. Although base freight eases, surcharges for Africa and Red Sea lanes keep rising and push up actual shipping costs.

Supply and Demand Analysis

Carriers have released a batch of rate adjustment notices this month, aiming to set price benchmarks for next year’s long-term contract negotiations. Nevertheless, there is a noticeable gap between published tariffs and real spot prices, and the proposed hikes face strong resistance. The main driver is looser supply: vessels previously diverted around the Cape are returning to conventional routes, adding effective capacity. Port congestion has eased, waiting time for vessels has shortened, and waterway accessibility has improved. In addition, cargo shipments for the Christmas season in Europe and America were brought forward, leaving limited new cargo volume in November to sustain rate increases.

It is worth noting that lower base freight does not mean a proportional fall in total logistics costs. Fuel, emission control, carbon charges, congestion and risk surcharges apply cumulatively, with sharp rises in peak season surcharges for Africa. Disruptions including overseas port maintenance, labour disputes and temporary traffic controls at domestic ports may trigger delivery delays and extra expenses. Separately, the dry bulk market follows an independent upward trend, supported by shipment schedules for ore and grain.

Market Outlook

For the rest of November, the market will likely remain in a state where carriers are eager to uphold rates, spot cargo demand is weak, base freight drifts down moderately and surcharges rise implicitly. Two key variables will shape the outlook. First, the Lunar New Year falls earlier next year, which may bring forward pre-holiday cargo releases. Together with the year-end long-term contract negotiation window, carriers will continue to defend rates, creating potential for a mild rebound from late November to early December. Second, new vessel deliveries will cap the market in the medium term, ruling out the possibility of a sustained strong rally.

Foreign trade enterprises may adopt the following practices: secure vessel space in advance instead of locking in high rates; evaluate total end-to-end costs rather than focusing solely on base freight; and prioritise index-linked terms for long-term contracts to mitigate risks from fixed-rate agreements.